In Germany, climate change could cause damage of up to 900 billion euros. According to the study, the economy in Germany would also make losses in the best-case scenario. The loss due to deaths and reduced quality of life has not yet been taken into account in this analysis.
Forecasts up to mid-century
If a current study is to be believed, the loss due to climate change in Germany would amount to up to 900 billion euros – by the middle of the century alone. This result is based on a study recently presented in Berlin by the Federal Ministries for the Environment, Economics and Climate Protection.
In the study called “Costs from Climate Change Consequences in Germany”, the Institute for Ecological Economic Research IÖW, the Society for Economic Structural Research GWS and Prognos AG imitated various scenarios for the period from 2022 to 2050.
The intensity of the scenarios varied depending on the extent of global warming.
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Different scenarios
In the “ideal case” there would be costs of 280 billion euros for the period. The initiators of the study explicitly emphasize that the results should not be understood as a prediction, but as an illustration of different scenarios.
According to the models, the average annual costs incurred over the past 20 years up to the year 2050 could increase by a factor of one and a half to five times each year. A loss of 0.6 to 1.8 percent in gross domestic product is therefore realistic for 2050.
Factors that cannot be calculated
According to these studies, the economy in Germany would shrink significantly even in the most favorable scenario if no measures are taken to combat global warming. If, on the other hand, more greenery was planted in German cities and other environmentally friendly measures were introduced, the loss of economic output would be reduced by 60 to 100 percent.
At the same time, the calculated values form lower limits, according to the authors, because not all consequences of climate change can be represented by models or calculated in costs. However, because a steady loss of quality of life, deaths and possible biodiversity are not taken into account, it can be assumed that costs caused by climate change could be significantly higher.